Despite earlier insinuations that President Bola Tinubu could replace Vice President Kashim Shettima for myriad political and other reasons peculiar to Nigeria, the idea appears to have fizzled out.
Soon enough, Nigerians will know for certain. INEC just opened its portal for political parties to submit their list of candidates for all elective offices.
And when INEC finally publishes the list for each party, there could be surprises. Even worse, unexpected names as state assembly candidates could cause total meltdowns in some parties.
So far, only Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the NDC, has named his running mate.
In ruling APC, the presidency long ago ordered ministers and aides to remain silent about a possible change to the 2027 ticket, following an initial warning from a cabinet member.
The code of silence may still be in place, however, as the President has not categorically named Shettima as his running mate.
There were reports late last year that Rabiu Kwankwaso, now Obi’s running mate, spent the first two and half years of Tinubu’s government negotiating and lobbying to replace Shettima in 2027.
That was until Governor Abba Yusuf of Kano pulled the rug from under Kwankwaso’s feet.
But a more telling sign that the running mate debate could be over is that the president chose Shettima to return his presidential nomination form for the 2027 election to the APC secretariat. He later won the primary.
Then there is the subtle dig Shettima made, after the primary, to unnamed kinsmen who reportedly told Tinubu not to wear the clothes Shettima gave him as they could be laced with some form of poison.
The suggestion is that they wanted Shettima dropped as VP.
Clearly, the Vice President believes his place on the APC is now assured and that a threat no longer exist. Maybe, maybe not.
President Tinubu himself repeatedly tried to be Vice President over the last 20 years.
His first attempt was in 2007. He tried again in 2011, coming up with a last-minute scheme when the window for political parties to replace candidates had closed.
It involved getting Tunde Bakare to resign after the election.
Bakare was Muhammadu Buhari’s running mate on the CPC platform.
So, for the president, the idea of replacing one candidate with another to either strengthen the ticket or adjust governance dynamics is nothing new. He did it in Lagos.
When Buhari and Tinubu finally agreed, it was four years later.
And this time around, the process of picking a running mate was the most contentious it had ever been in Nigeria.
That is, unless Tinubu approaches 2027 as an opportunity to redraw the balance of power between the north and south, between religions and within the existing social and political order.
